Flood Vulnerability Evaluation and Prediction Using Multi-temporal Data: A Case in Tangerang, Indonesia

Budi Heru Santosa, Dwi Nowo Martono, Rachmadhi Purwana, Raldi Hendro Koestoer

Abstract


Land-use change has an impact on growing physical flood vulnerability. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approaches are increasingly being used for flood vulnerability assessments. However, none has used time-series land cover data for evaluation and rainfall over various return periods for prediction simultaneously, especially in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate and predict physical flood vulnerability using time-series land cover data and rainfall data over various return periods. Eight criteria were considered in the assessment: elevation, topographic wetness index, slope, distance to the river, distance downstream, soil type, rainfall, and land cover. The criteria weights were determined using the AHP method based on expert judgment. The multi-criteria model was built and validated using flood inundation data. Based on the validated model, the effect of land cover changes on flood vulnerability was evaluated. The flood vulnerability changes were also predicted based on rainfall over various return periods. The evaluation and prediction models have shown reliable findings. The criterion elevation and distance to the river significantly influenced the physical flood vulnerability by 41% and 20%. The evaluation model showed a strong correlation between the built-up area and the area with high flood vulnerability (r2 = 0.96). Furthermore, the model predicted an inundation area expansion for rainfall over various return periods. Further research using spatial data with higher resolution and more advanced validation techniques is needed to improve the model accuracy.

Keywords


Flood vulnerability; multi-criteria; GIS; weighted overlay; flood inundation.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Y. Lang and W. Song, “Quantifying and mapping the responses of selected ecosystem services to projected land use changes,†Ecol. Indic., vol. 102, no. July 2019, pp. 186–198, 2019, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.02.019.

C. Deng et al., “How trade-offs between ecological construction and urbanization expansion affect ecosystem services,†Ecol. Indic., vol. 122, p. 107253, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107253.

B. H. Santosa and R. H. Koestoer, “Public Green Space Planning and Management towards Livable City,†in 2020 IEEE Asia-Pacific Conference on Geoscience, Electronics and Remote Sensing Technology (AGERS), 2020, 2020, pp. 102–106. doi: 10.1109/AGERS51788.2020.945276.

P. Riad, S. Graefe, H. Hussein, and A. Buerkert, “Landscape transformation processes in two large and two small cities in Egypt and Jordan over the last five decades using remote sensing data,†Landsc. Urban Plan., vol. 197, no. December 2019, p. 103766, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103766.

J. Hounkpè, B. Diekkrüger, A. A. Afouda, and L. O. C. Sintondji, “Land use change increases flood hazard: a multi-modelling approach to assess change in flood characteristics driven by socio-economic land use change scenarios,†Nat. Hazards, vol. 98, no. 3, pp. 1021–1050, 2019, doi: 10.1007/s11069-018-3557-8.

S. Vemula, K. Srinivasa Raju, and S. Sai Veena, “Modelling impact of future climate and land use land cover on flood vulnerability for policy support – Hyderabad, India,†Water Policy, vol. 22, no. 5, pp. 733–747, 2020, doi: 10.2166/wp.2020.106.

Tangerang City Government, “Tangerang City Regional Regulation Number 6 of 2019 concerning Amendments to Tangerang City Regional Regulation Number 6 of 2012 concerning the Tangerang City Regional Spatial Plan for 2012-2032,†Tangerang City, 2019.

Public Works and Public Housing Services, “Master Plan for Flood Control and Drainage System, Tangerang City,†Tangerang City, 2017.

J. Jian, D. Ryu, J. F. Costelloe, and C. H. Su, “Towards hydrological model calibration using river level measurements,†J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., vol. 10, pp. 95–109, 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2016.12.085.

N. Guo, X. Tang, Y. Ren, K. Ma, and J. Fang, “Place vulnerability assessment based on the HOP model in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,†GeoJournal, vol. 86, no. 2, pp. 689–710, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s10708-019-10092-4.

S. Deepak, G. Rajan, and P. G. Jairaj, “Geospatial approach for assessment of vulnerability to flood in local self governments,†Geoenvironmental Disasters, vol. 7, no. 1, 2020, doi: 10.1186/s40677-020-00172-w.

E. Feloni, I. Mousadis, and E. Baltas, “Flood vulnerability assessment using a GIS-based multi-criteria approach—The case of Attica region,†J. Flood Risk Manag., vol. 13, no. S1, pp. 1–15, 2020, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12563.

M. Hussain et al., “Gisâ€based multiâ€criteria approach for flood vulnerability assessment and mapping in district Shangla: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan,†Sustain., vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 1–29, 2021, doi: 10.3390/su13063126.

M. Nazeer and H. R. Bork, “A local scale flood vulnerability assessment in the flood-prone area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan,†Nat. Hazards, vol. 105, no. 1, pp. 755–781, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s11069-020-04336-7.

G. S. Ogato, A. Bantider, K. Abebe, and D. Geneletti, “Geographic information system (GIS)-Based multicriteria analysis of flooding hazard and risk in Ambo Town and its watershed, West shoa zone, oromia regional State, Ethiopia,†J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., vol. 27, no. March 2019, p. 100659, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100659.

H. Desalegn and A. Mulu, “Flood vulnerability assessment using GIS at Fetam watershed, upper Abbay basin, Ethiopia,†Heliyon, vol. 7, no. 1, p. e05865, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05865.

K. S. Vignesh, I. Anandakumar, R. Ranjan, and D. Borah, “Flood vulnerability assessment using an integrated approach of multi-criteria decision-making model and geospatial techniques,†Model. Earth Syst. Environ., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 767–781, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s40808-020-00997-2.

J. S. Cabrera and H. S. Lee, “Flood-prone area assessment using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis: A case study in Davao Oriental, Philippines,†Water (Switzerland), vol. 11, no. 11, 2019, doi: 10.3390/w11112203.

K. Dandapat and G. K. Panda, “Flood vulnerability analysis and risk assessment using analytical hierarchy process,†Model. Earth Syst. Environ., vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 1627–1646, 2017, doi: 10.1007/s40808-017-0388-7.

S. Chakraborty and S. Mukhopadhyay, “Assessing flood risk using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS): application in Coochbehar district of West Bengal, India,†Nat. Hazards, vol. 99, no. 1, pp. 247–274, 2019, doi: 10.1007/s11069-019-03737-7.

P. Ramkar and S. M. Yadav, “Flood risk index in data-scarce river basins using the AHP and GIS approach,†Nat. Hazards, vol. 109, no. 1, pp. 1119–1140, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s11069-021-04871-x.

M. Cerri, M. Steinhausen, H. Kreibich, and K. Schröter, “Are OpenStreetMap building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling?,†Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 643–662, 2021, doi: 10.5194/nhess-21-643-2021.

Y. Li, S. Gong, Z. Zhang, M. Liu, C. Sun, and Y. Zhao, “Vulnerability evaluation of rainstorm disaster based on ESA conceptual framework: A case study of Liaoning province, China,†Sustain. Cities Soc., vol. 64, no. February 2020, p. 102540, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2020.102540.

Ö. Ekmekcioğlu, K. Koc, and M. Özger, “District based flood risk assessment in Istanbul using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process,†Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., vol. 35, no. 3, pp. 617–637, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s00477-020-01924-8.

H. Nasiri, M. J. M. Yusof, T. A. M. Ali, and M. K. B. Hussein, “District flood vulnerability index: urban decision-making tool,†Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol., vol. 16, no. 5, pp. 2249–2258, 2019, doi: 10.1007/s13762-018-1797-5.

S. Rashetnia and H. Jahanbani, “Flood vulnerability assessment using a fuzzy rule-based index in Melbourne, Australia,†Sustain. Water Resour. Manag., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 1–13, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s40899-021-00489-w.

A. Sahu, T. Bose, and D. R. Samal, “Urban Flood Risk Assessment and Development of Urban Flood Resilient Spatial Plan for Bhubaneswar,†Environ. Urban. ASIA, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 269–291, 2021, doi: 10.1177/09754253211042489.

M. A. Grounds, J. E. Leclerc, and S. Joslyn, “Expressing flood likelihood: Return period versus probability,†Weather. Clim. Soc., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 5–17, 2018, doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0107.1.

E. Intrieri et al., “Operational framework for flood risk communication,†Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., vol. 46, p. 101510, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101510.

M. Rahman et al., “Flooding and its relationship with land cover change, population growth, and road density,†Geosci. Front., vol. 12, no. 6, p. 101224, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.gsf.2021.101224.

D. O. Onyango, C. O. Ikporukpo, J. O. Taiwo, and S. B. Opiyo, “Land use and land cover change as an indicator of watershed urban development in the Kenyan Lake Victoria basin,†Int. J. Sustain. Dev. Plan., vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 335–345, 2021, doi: 10.18280/IJSDP.160213.

O. M. Ayenikafo and Y. F. Wang, “Land use/land cover changes analysis in sudano guinean region of benin,†Appl. Ecol. Environ. Res., vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 715–726, 2021, doi: 10.15666/aeer/1901_715726.

L. Gigović, D. PamuÄar, Z. Bajić, and S. Drobnjak, “Application of GIS-interval rough AHP methodology for flood hazard mapping in Urban areas,†Water (Switzerland), vol. 9, no. 6, pp. 1–26, 2017, doi: 10.3390/w9060360.

X. Ren, N. Hong, L. Li, J. Kang, and J. Li, “Effect of infiltration rate changes in urban soils on stormwater runoff process,†Geoderma, vol. 363, no. August 2019, 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.geoderma.2019.114158.

P. Mattivi, F. Franci, A. Lambertini, and G. Bitelli, “TWI computation: a comparison of different open source GISs,†Open Geospatial Data, Softw. Stand., vol. 4, no. 1, 2019, doi: 10.1186/s40965-019-0066-y.

R. Loritz et al., “A topographic index explaining hydrological similarity by accounting for the joint controls of runoff formation,†Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 23, no. 9, pp. 3807–3821, 2019, doi: 10.5194/hess-23-3807-2019.

S. Nepal, W.-A. Fluegel, and A. B. Shresta, “Upstream-downstream linkages of hydrological processes in the Himalayan region,†Ecol. Process., vol. 3, no. 19, pp. 1–16, 2014, doi: 10.1186/s13717-014-0019-4.

D. T. Thu Ha, S. H. Kim, and D. H. Bae, “Impacts of upstream structures on downstream discharge in the transboundary imjin river basin, Korean Peninsula,†Appl. Sci., vol. 10, no. 9, 2020, doi: 10.3390/app10093333.

Z. Li, “An enhanced dual IDW method for high-quality geospatial interpolation,†Sci. Rep., vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 1–18, 2021, doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-89172-w.

Z. N. Liu, X. Y. Yu, L. F. Jia, Y. S. Wang, Y. C. Song, and H. D. Meng, “The influence of distance weight on the inverse distance weighted method for ore-grade estimation,†Sci. Rep., vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 1–8, 2021, doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-82227-y.

W. yue Zou, S. qing Yin, and W. ting Wang, “Spatial interpolation of the extreme hourly precipitation at different return levels in the Haihe River basin,†J. Hydrol., vol. 598, p. 126273, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126273.

T. L. Saaty, “Decision making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process,†Int. J. Serv. Sci., vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 83–98, 2008, doi: 10.1504/IJSSCI.2008.017590.

Z. Afifi, H. J. Chu, Y. L. Kuo, Y. C. Hsu, H. K. Wong, and M. Z. Ali, “Residential flood loss assessment and risk mapping from high-resolution simulation,†Water (Switzerland), vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 1–15, 2019, doi: 10.3390/w11040751.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit.12.6.16903

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Published by INSIGHT - Indonesian Society for Knowledge and Human Development